New Zealand Food and Fibre Exports Hit Record Levels: What the June 2026 SOPI Outlook Means for Processing, Cold Storage, and Logistics Operations
What does the SOPI June 2026 report forecast for NZ food and fibre exports?
New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is forecast to reach a record $64.3 billion in export revenue in the year to 30 June 2026, a 6% increase on the previous year. Growth is led by dairy ($28.6 billion), meat and wool ($14.1 billion), and horticulture ($9.5 billion). Revenue is projected to reach $70.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2030.
New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is running harder than it has in a long time. Record dairy production, surging meat and wool prices, and strong horticultural growth are combining to push export revenue to $64.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2026 – up 6% on the previous year and a new high for the sector.
Behind every export dollar is a facility processing more, running longer hours, and moving product faster than it was 12 months ago. For facility managers, production managers, and operations teams across dairy, meat processing, cold storage, and logistics, the numbers in the Ministry for Primary Industries’ Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report, June 2026, translate directly into operational workload.
Here is what the report shows.
NZ Food and Fibre Exports 2026 – Key Figures at a Glance
Source: Ministry for Primary Industries, Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI), June 2026.
Source: MPI SOPI June 2026. Processed food and other products figure from Table 1, SOPI June 2026. Forestry and seafood included in total. Individual sector figures shown are the primary sectors covered in this article.
What is the SOPI report?
The Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report is published by the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI). It provides twice-yearly forecasts and analysis covering export revenue, production, prices, and risks across New Zealand’s food and fibre sector, including dairy, meat, horticulture, seafood, forestry, and arable.
Record Export Revenue, with a Solid Outlook to 2030
New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is forecast to deliver $64.3 billion in export revenue in the year to 30 June 2026, up 6% on the $60.4 billion recorded in the previous year.
The medium-term outlook is equally positive. Export revenue is projected to reach $70.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2030, supported by continued global demand for premium New Zealand food and fibre, expanding trade access, and sustained production growth across key sectors.
The Middle East conflict, which broke out in February 2026, has created genuine cost pressure across the sector. Fuel, fertiliser, agrichemicals, and freight costs have all risen as supply chains for key inputs were disrupted. Despite this, New Zealand producers have maintained market access and adapted through forward planning and market diversification. The underlying fundamentals of the sector remain sound.
Dairy – A Season That Broke Records on Multiple Fronts
Dairy remains New Zealand’s largest export sector. Revenue is forecast to reach $28.6 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, a 5% increase and a new high for the sector.
Underpinning that result is a production season that exceeded expectations. Milk production is expected to reach 2.02 billion kilograms of milksolids, the first time the sector has broken through the two-billion-kilogram mark. Strong global demand, favourable pasture conditions, and continued farm-level productivity gains all contributed to the result.
Prices are expected to ease in the next season. But farm profitability remains strong, and New Zealand’s pasture-based production system stays cost-competitive by global standards.
For dairy processing facilities, the more immediate question is throughput. A record milk season means more product moving through every stage – processing, chilling, cold storage, and dispatch. The infrastructure managing that volume has to keep pace.
Meat and Wool – Global Constraints Create a Strong Window for NZ Exporters
The meat and wool sector is forecast to grow 14% to $14.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2026. One of the strongest single-year performances the sector has seen.
The driver is global supply. Beef and sheep meat availability is tight in North America and Europe, with constrained herd numbers pushing prices to record levels. New Zealand exporters are well placed to fill that gap, and the competitive advantage looks likely to hold through 2026 and beyond.
Farm revenue is forecast to surge 96% in 2025/26, as higher export returns more than offset rising input costs. That result supports continued farm investment in productivity and, further downstream, in processing capacity and infrastructure.
Horticulture – Kiwifruit and Apples Reach New Highs
Horticulture export revenue is expected to reach $9.5 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, a 7% increase on the prior year.
Kiwifruit leads the category. Export revenue is forecast to grow 16% to $4.8 billion, driven by strong yields, premium pricing, and growing international demand across key markets. Apple exports are forecast to reach $1.3 billion (also a record) as maturing orchards and favourable growing conditions lift both production volume and export quality.
New market access, including through the recently signed New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement, is expected to create additional demand headroom for both categories over the coming years.
A New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement – A Significant Structural Opportunity
One of the more consequential developments in the June 2026 SOPI report is the newly signed New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement.
The agreement provides immediate, substantial tariff relief across a wide range of primary products. More than 95% of New Zealand’s exports to India enter duty-free immediately upon the agreement taking effect.
NZ–India FTA: Key Concessions for Primary Exporters
| Product | Access granted |
|---|---|
| Lamb and wool | Duty-free immediately |
| Most forestry products | Duty-free immediately |
| Kiwifruit | Tariff halved to 16.5% – best-ever access in an Indian bilateral FTA |
| Apples | First-ever preferential access in an Indian FTA; tariff halved from 50% |
| Seafood | Improved access across categories |
| Mānuka honey | Tariff cut from 66% to 16.5% over five years – first-ever preferential access |
| Wine | Tariff reduced from 150% to 25–50% over 10 years |
| Selected dairy | Improved access for specific categories |
Source: MPI SOPI June 2026. Over 95% of NZ exports to India enter duty-free immediately upon the agreement taking effect.
India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030. A rapidly growing middle class with increasing appetite for premium imported food makes this one of the more significant long-term market opportunities the New Zealand primary sector has had access to. The FTA provides the foundation for consistent, competitive access to that market.
Cost Pressures and the El Niño Risk Heading into 2026/27
Strong export revenues are real, but so are the cost pressures operating underneath them.
Fuel, freight, and fertiliser costs have all risen as a direct consequence of the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains for bunker fuel, urea, agrichemicals, and freight corridors. These costs are working through farm and processing budgets across the sector and are expected to remain elevated while the conflict continues.
⚠ Risks to Watch: El Niño and Input Cost Pressures
- Super El Niño risk: Signals already strengthening heading into 2026/27. Drier, windier conditions likely in northern and eastern NZ – affecting pasture, water, and production volumes.
- Fuel costs: Rising as a result of Middle East conflict disruption to global supply chains.
- Fertiliser and agrichemical costs: Elevated – Middle East is a major supplier of urea, ammonia, and agrichemical feedstocks.
- Freight costs: Spot container and freight rates remain elevated as shipping corridors are disrupted.
Source: MPI SOPI June 2026.
On the climate side, the SOPI report flags a more immediate concern for the season ahead. El Niño signals are already strengthening, and the risk of a strong or ‘super’ El Niño is increasing heading into 2026/27. El Niño typically brings drier, windier conditions to the north and east of New Zealand, putting pasture growth, water availability, and production volumes at risk for exposed producers.
Businesses with strong financial positions and diversified markets are best placed to absorb these pressures without significant disruption. For cold storage and processing facilities, the El Niño risk is worth factoring into operational planning now, particularly around water access, energy use, and any production assumptions built around the previous season’s volumes.
What Record Production Means for the Facilities Behind It
Export forecasts tell you what the sector is producing. They don’t always tell you what that means for the operations supporting it.
A record dairy season means record milk volumes moving through processing plants and into cold storage. More litres means more time on plant, more product in coolstores and freezers, and more cycles at every entry and exit point in the facility. Equipment and infrastructure that was managing average throughput is now managing peak throughput, month after month.
The same logic applies to meat processing and chilled distribution. Record beef and sheep meat exports mean more product in chillers, more loading dock activity, and more pressure on every stage of the cold chain between the plant and the port.
For facilities managers and operations teams, a record production season raises a straightforward question: is the infrastructure running your operation built for sustained high throughput, or was it specified for conditions that no longer reflect what you’re actually running?
High door cycle counts, extended operating hours, and greater cold storage utilisation all accelerate wear rates and raise the risk of unplanned downtime. In a record production year, a door failure or loading dock issue isn’t just a maintenance call, it can disrupt dispatch schedules, compromise cold chain integrity, and affect product quality at the point it matters most.
The SOPI outlook points to continued growth through to 2030. For operations teams, that’s a prompt to look at whether the infrastructure keeping pace today is also fit for what the next few seasons are likely to demand.
Is Your Facility Ready for Sustained High Throughput?
Record export seasons put sustained pressure on the infrastructure running behind them. If your operation is processing more product than it was 12 months ago, these are worth checking:
- Are your rapid or cold storage doors keeping pace with increased forklift and pallet traffic?
- Have door cycle counts increased significantly since your last service?
- Are your loading docks set up for the throughput levels you’re currently running?
- Has your facility had a site audit in the last 12 months?
- Are you carrying any deferred maintenance that could become a disruption during peak production?
Get a Free Asset Condition Report
If your facility is processing more product than it was 12 months ago, it’s worth checking whether your doors and loading dock setup are keeping pace.
Ulti works with cold storage, food processing, dairy, meat processing, and logistics operations across New Zealand. A free asset condition report is a practical starting point. It gives you a clear picture of where your doors and dock systems stand before a busy season turns a minor fault into a disruption.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: What does the SOPI June 2026 report forecast for NZ food and fibre exports? New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is forecast to reach $64.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2026 – up 6% on the previous year. Growth is driven by record dairy, meat and wool, and horticulture revenues. Export revenue is projected to reach $70.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2030.
Q2: Why are New Zealand meat and wool exports performing so strongly in 2026? Tight global beef and sheep meat supply – particularly in North America and Europe – has pushed prices to record levels. New Zealand exporters are well placed to fill that demand gap. Meat and wool exports are forecast to grow 14% to $14.1 billion in 2025/26, with farm revenue expected to surge 96%.
Q3: What does the New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement mean for food and fibre exporters? The NZ–India FTA provides immediate duty-free access for over 95% of New Zealand’s exports to India by value. Key beneficiaries include lamb, wool, most forestry products, kiwifruit, apples, seafood, mānuka honey, and selected dairy products. India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, making the agreement a significant long-term growth opportunity.
Q4: What is the El Niño risk for NZ primary producers in 2026/27? El Niño signals are already strengthening heading into the 2026/27 season. The SOPI report flags an increasing risk of a strong or ‘super’ El Niño, which typically brings drier, windier conditions to the north and east of New Zealand. This puts pasture growth, water supply, and production volumes at risk for exposed operations.
Q5: What cost pressures are NZ food producers facing in 2026? Fuel, fertiliser, agrichemicals, and freight costs have all risen as a result of the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains for these inputs. These costs are working through farm and processing budgets and are expected to remain elevated while the conflict continues.
Q6: How does record food and fibre production affect processing and cold storage facilities? Higher production volumes mean more forklift cycles, longer operating hours, more product moving in and out of freezer and coolrooms, and more dock activity at dispatch. Equipment that was managing normal throughput in 2023 is now managing record throughput year-round. That sustained pressure accelerates wear on door mechanisms, dock levellers, and seals and raises the risk of a fault occurring at the worst possible time: peak production, peak dispatch, or a cold chain-sensitive moment.
Q7: What is NZ’s kiwifruit export revenue forecast for 2025/26? Kiwifruit export revenue is forecast to grow 16% to $4.8 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, making it one of the strongest-performing horticultural export categories. Strong yields, premium pricing, and growing international demand are the primary drivers.
Q8: What is NZ dairy export revenue forecast for 2025/26? Dairy export revenue is forecast to reach $28.6 billion in the year to 30 June 2026 – a 5% increase and a new record. Underpinning the result is the first season in which milk production has exceeded 2 billion kilograms of milksolids, reaching 2.02 billion kilograms.
Is your facility keeping pace with a record season?
Ulti works with cold storage, dairy, meat processing, and logistics operations across New Zealand. A free asset condition report is a practical starting point. It gives you a clear picture of where your Ulti Care preventative maintenance programme should focus, before a busy season turns a minor fault into a disruption.
Talk to the Ulti team to book your free asset condition report.